Warrigals I don't believe the export story is, at this stage,...

Warrigals

I don't believe the export story is, at this stage, quite as compelling as what you suggest. Export revenue has grown from nearly $42m in FY2006 to about $82m in FY2015. Don't get me wrong, that's nearly 8% annual growth.

Here are the numbers (export sales revenues):

FY2006 $41.5 m
FY2007 $51.9 m
FY2008 $56.1 m
FY2009 $57.3 m
FY2010 $57.0 m
FY2011 $58.5 m
FY2012 $59.7 m
FY2013 $59.8 m
FY2014 $69.7 m
FY2015 $82.1 m

However, the start and end dates paint a much more optimistic picture than the true overall trend. If we take the average of FY's 2006/7 as our starting point, and the average of FY's 20014/15 as our ending point, then we get annual growth rate of 5.5%.

But in truth, in 5 of those 9 years, annual growth has been less than 2.6% percent. So clearly, it has been hard to come by.

But yes, the last financial year (FY2015) shows promise, however, not as much promise, as what the half year figures indicate. Here are the half year figures:

HY ending D2013: $33.2 m (*RG: 14% ; ^pcpG: 8.6%)
HY ending J2014: $36.4 m ( RG: 9.6% ; pcpG: 25%)
Hy ending D2014: $36.2 m ( RG: -0.7% ; pcpG: 8.9%)
HY ending J2015: $45.9 m ( RG: 27% ; pcpG: 26%)
Hy ending D2015: $41.7 m ( RG: -9.3% ; pcpG: 15%)

*RG = rolling growth
^pcpG = previous corresponding period growth

So as you can see, there was a substantial contraction in export growth in H1 FY2015 compared to H2 FY2014, though it was still a very healthy increase on the pcp. In truth , I don't think I should be getting too fixated on one half year period (or even on a whole financial year period), either on the down side or on the up side.

And lets not forget that while the HY ending J2015, exports represented a little over 27% pf total sales (in the HY ending D2015, they represented nearly 24% of sales), they still only represent a small proportion of earnings. I am not as clear here, because earnings for exports are not separately disclosed. They are disclosed for "Thailand", "USA" and "Europe". However, "Thailand" mainly comprises sales made to Australia, so they are not mainly exports.

However, the figures for "USA" and "Europe" are quiet telling. Below are their contribution to consolidated sales (s) and to consolidiated earnings (e):

FY2012:
USA: r=9.9% ; e=0.4%
Europe: r=nil ; e=nil
FY2013:
USA: r=9.2% ; e=0.9%
Europe: r=nil ; e=nil
FY2014:
USA: r=10.5% ; e=5.1%
Europe: r=0.4% ; e=-0.1%(small loss)
FY2015:
USA: r=11.7% ; e=2.0%
Europe: r=2.0% ; e=1.5%

So it's very early to be proclaiming victory, I would suggest.

Mars