Another down day. Urgghh! (only one cent; but at $1.395 at one...

Another down day. Urgghh! (only one cent; but at $1.395 at one stage) and another day where sellers outnumber buyers by multiple times. My plan is to double my holding at $1.25. Not for any reason I can justify with reasoned analysis, but simply something I have decided upon.

It seems the more information that is available in the market in 2024, the more short-termism we see. Increasingly, participants think holding over a long weekend is the long term. I like to buy parts of businesses with real earnings, when there's a temporary downturn and simply wait.

I must admit to having a perverse sense of satisfaction in seeing Audinate (a great company, it seems, but I've never bought any of its shares) sell-off hard since March. Mostly because I missed the boat, and am too much of a cheapskate to chase rising prices on high PE stocks! However, it's interesting how a stock can be hot at $23 with a narrative to match about world domination, but cold a couple of months later at $15. As Buffet says, one pays a high price for the sunny days, certainty, and warm glow and comfort of following the herd. I wonder if Big River will be a case of people not wanting its shares at $1.43, but keen to buy at $2.43.

In the short term, I suspect the pessimists will be correct, but we will prevail in the medium term. I do not know how low our earnings will fall, but reading between the lines, the second half (which will be released in August) did not seem too hopeful in the previous market update. As always, we are left to speculate how earnings per share will end up. Any EPS or dividend projections are total guesswork, and dependent upon what our second half revenue actually comes in at. The market is setting the bar pretty low at this point.

I would be very keen to watch Big River covered on the YouTube channel "Coffee & Microcaps" and see a presentation with our CEO. I'm keen to absorb any new information or opinions about this company.

I wonder too, whether BRI would be bought out by private equity if the shares become cheap enough, and re-listed in a year or two at a higher price when the cycle turns. I note that our top twenty shareholders hold a very high 89% of the total shares available. Of those, 36% are held by NAOS. I maintain that given recent sector consolidation, and expected future tailwinds, we'd have to be of interest to private equity or a bigger fish, even at the bottom of the cycle. We were apparently bought as a 100 year old company by P.E. and listed shortly thereafter, eight-odd years ago. Maybe it could happen again.

Anyway, if you've read this far, thank you for wading-through my rubbish! I haven't added much. Just in the mood for a Big River chat