bright future, page-18

Correction to my attempt to remember my calculations from yesterday.
Ignore that comment about 14.7 million barrels for the year.

Here is the detail in yesterday's post. Apologies for reproducing it here again but it gives you my estimates so you have an idea of how i have arrived at my conclusion.

"Latest info on NZOG website indicates that as of 17 March Tui had produced 9.8 million barrels of oil with 9.4 million shipped since July 30, 2007.

NZOG share of production to date is about 1.23 million barrels

Production must reach 10 million barrels this week - say by Thursday.

That leaves 3 and a bit months to go before the end of the financial year

So about 10 days of March after they reach 10 million total.
Then 30 days of April , 31 days of May, 30 days of June.

So a total of 101 days. Taking a conservative 41,000 bopd for rest of March and all of April would give 40 days @ 41,000 = 1,640,000 barrels
May : we assume 31 days at 37,000 barrels = 1,147,000
barrels.
June : we assume 30 days @ 35,000 barrels = 1,050,000 barrels.

That would then give us an additional 3,837,000 barrels on top of the 10,000,000 this week by the end of the financial year.

So yes production is likely to exceed the 12 million barrels that they are presently indicating.

Not bad eh ? "

So the total I got from that set of calculations is obviously 13,837,000 barrels. Wouldn't be surprised though if they managed to crack 14 million for the year.