XJO 0.71% 7,783.0 s&p/asx 200

bring back permabear

  1. 9,803 Posts.
    The situation:

    On weight of evidence I remain bearish. The pros and cons I see include:

    Bearish case:
    (1) Interest rates spiked to 5.1%, typically a level that correlates with declines in stock prices.
    (2) oil is riding high, adding to the cost burden on consumers and companies on top of interest rates, and is likely to fuel higher rates because of the inflation effect
    (3) spx dropped through its first sell signal at 1505, and closed at its second signal or pivot at 1490, with the next sell at 1475.
    (4) almost any oscillator you look at has turned negative and on a day basis hasn't hit oversold as yet, indicating more potential downside. The rsi in particular has passed down through 50, typically imo a support level for the bulls, but is not yet oversold.
    (5) spx still hasn't exceeded its old intraday high, so this is a double top, dangerous land for bulls.
    (6) The daily candle chart shows next major support at 1460, the top of the previous up leg.

    The Bull case:
    (1) spx hasn't yet hit a major sell signal which should be down around 1360, indicating that so far this is bull correction.
    (2) at close spx is sitting on its 50ma and just above another sell signal at 1490, both supports.
    (3) It is at this level that the previous leg of the bull rally changed to a lesser angle of ascent, indicating loss of momentum. I've noticed that correction in a bull market often retreat to this point before finding some bull strength.

    Trading ideas: I expect a minor bounce from this level, followed at least by a retest of 1490. A break of 1490 indicates significant more downside imo. In short, as dune says, pop the rallies, or trade with a bearish bias.
    imho.

    and don't listen to prophet, he's become sadly bullish!! :-) Bring back permabear!!! Bring back permabear!! :-))) lets hear it..

    cheers!
 
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