US$14 b is AU$160 per share for Neuren.I think you are right that similar deal would be reasonable for Neuren in not too distant future.
Analysts estimated $2 billion peak sales potential for Karuna drug for Schizophrenia if approved.
Trof peak sales likely $1 billion now and NNZ-2591 for 4 current Ph 2 indications been said to be 5x market size ie $5 billion. Which is 2.5x for Karuna drug.They just completed Ph 3 of course, and we are still Ph 2. But if you add a 60% discount for that you'd end up same place as Karuna.
I personally believe any takeover will be over 100. And if Neuren keep pushing it could be $150 or more potentially.
Bristol Myers to acquire Karuna for $14Billion, page-5
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