Bristol Myers to acquire Karuna for $14Billion, page-23

Just wanted to throw something into the discussion for comparative purposes.

Karuna's drug treats Schizophrenia - and possibly other conditions - but Schizophrenia is the main focus from what I gather. The NIMH (National Institute for Mental Health) in the USA estimates that "Across studies that use household-based survey samples, clinical diagnostic interviews, and medical records, estimates of the prevalence of schizophrenia and related psychotic disorders in the U.S. range between 0.25% and 0.64%".

If you do the numbers in the USA, based on a population size of 331 million, it looks like between 827,000 - 2.1 million people suffer from the condition.

Now compare that with Autism, which in my view, is a genuine option on the table for any acquirer of 2591 or Neuren altogether, should the 3 remaining trials be positive - which I am extremely confident they will be. The CDC estimates that Autism impacts 2.21% of adults and 2.8% of children. Even if you went the lower figure, and then rounded down to just 2%, and just applied that to the population at large, you would have a patient population of approximately 6.62 million people. There is still plenty of meat on the bone, considering I rounded down the overall prevalence and did not factor in the significant increase in prevalence over time. In 2000, 1 in 150 children were diagnosed with Autism, compared to 1 in 36 today, according to the CDC.

If Karuna was worth $14b US, to treat a patient population of 2.1 million people at the top end of the range, how much would a company be worth who had a treatment for a condition with a population size more than 3 times the size of that associated with Schizophrenia.

A similar deal to Karuna would value Neuren at circa $160 per share if my maths is correct. Using the same methodology, a deal that valued the larger market size for Autism at 3 times that of Schizophrenia, would value Neuren at $480 per share - without taking into consideration any of the current conditions subject to trials or the ongoing revenue from Trofinetide.

I know that this is not how the world works but I think its an instructive way to consider the potential in the drug we are developing.