If anyone has doubts about BRK's veracity and effort in progressing it's SWISH project, the following chart exhibits the number of SWISH leases picked up by BRK so far in September 2018.
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They have won 24 out of 81 leases in their " townships /ranges" and as you can see are only a few leases from the most active winning bidder. I am assuming " BALCK MESA" with 4 leases is some sort of error .
Again what this doesn't tell us is how many acres this leasing effort is picking up but with a total of 133 leases now in 2018 in the SWISH AOI , their pace seems to be accelerating.
Trying to estimate how many acres they may have achieved so far on the information they have released and relating that back to leases won may give an indication of where they are now if the average lease size stays within a small range.
On that basis, from the first quarter report we have 300 acres picked up in SWISH and the Covey Energy website shows 40 leases won in that quarter....that gives 7.5 acres per lease average.
Second quarter they pick up 200 acres by winning 40 leases.... that gives 5 acres per lease on average .
So for for the first half, 500 acres on 78 leases gives us 6.4 acres per lease.
If we use 6.4 acres per lease for the 3rd quarter so far, we get ~ 350 acres won by 55 bids with a week left in the period.
I would take this as a MINIMUM estimate because all you need is them picking up a few 1/8 sections ( 80 acres) in a few leases and that number gets blown out of the water. However, on the basis of this crude analysis, I would be surprised ( but delighted) if this quarter's leasing effort gave us thousands of acres.
So for me, anything under 1600 total SWISH acres by end Sept 2018 is a disappointment, 1600-1800 is on par, 1800-2000 is good, 2000+ and we are off to the races.
Cheers
Dan
