BRL Chart, page-437

Well here comes the big apology @Moosie_900. I won’t quite create a new thread and this will probably be taken down (as this is largely irrelevant), but unlike some others on hotcopper, when I ‘make a mistake’, I will own up to it (such as calling a $40m USD court case $50m – completely made up, and then, perhaps even more alarmingly, defending a crystal clear, written down on numerous papers, 25% error). It has now been more than 5 trading days that BRL has finished under 14.0c, something that has taken 2 quarters of “any moment” to finally occur, and hence (in a pretty rare instance) I apologise @Moosie_900.

The problem with this ‘mistake’, and subsequent apology I have had to provide, is that there was a court case within the next quarter, and the issue with this is that this court case is based off one man’s opinion and interpretation (the judge) of a small amount of wording, and the irony being that this court case could have entirely different outcomes for parties in any of the next two rounds. Court cases are a win or lose – a toss of a coin – and even if BRL haven’t yet paid out a cent, and in fact never pay out a cent (eg they win in court of appeal), the market will react swiftly and decisively to the most up to date information, as it should. It was my grave mistake for not seeing this flip of a coin scenario: if BRL win, share price rockets up with the prospect of L&M, a largely low key offshore entity unlikely to be happy with any kind of appeal (they ain’t happy with BRL appealing as it is! )… and if BRL lose, share price drops a few cents (not exactly a halving as there was already there was clearly an element of nervousness built into the share price). So, it feels weird apologising for someone for getting their bet on a coin toss right – especially since, come appeal time, this bet could well be reversed! What I did get bang on is my post, a day or two out from court case release, that it would be highly ironic, yet not surprising, for our friend mossie, a chartist, with stated intention to have nearly no regard of FA (although this has changed recently???) to ride back into the form (and boy has he come back in!!) on the back of this judgement.

I think there is one clear lesson here: don’t make a bet with someone during a period a court judgement is being released – you just don’t know which way it will go so you might as well go play lotto instead – just not with a guy who’ll won’t say anything for months, but as soon as they win lotto, they’ll claim they always knew the lotto numbers because his analysis methods told him what the winning numbers would be, even if it is blindingly obvious there is no way, without inside information, one could get the right numbers through analysis.

That bigly profit, which have of course in them have all those pesky legal fees along the way, and with on 10 months of ownership – I suppose while the share price does not remotely reflect the way BRL is currently, the reassuring thing at least, having just chalked up over $37m in NPAT is to know BRL are likely comfortably able to pay this court case (all $70m NZD including any and all costs – the payment isn’t going up a material amount more for them to appeal so it really is a bad as it gets at this moment!) AND STILL HAVE ROOM to fund overseas expansion via debt, and probably cash flow left over (they are debt free afterall). Also sounds like a dividend would have been paid, if they had won the court case. Come court of appeal, I’ll toss a coin again, and boy oh boy I will be expecting an apology given his posts lately should they win in a court of appeal (and almost certain share price bounce well over 14c, ceteris paribus). Both parties coming to an agreement outside of court would, without doubt, be the best for both parties, but until then, it makes perfect financial sense, for BRL to keep fighting to the very end – the question is, will L&M continue this ultimately losing crusade against BRL (because they almost certainly aren’t going to get the final $40m lol).