BRL looking to push through resistance, page-13

Good luck to all on BRL.

I suggest you look at the price and volume of the domestic operations, when the contracts expire and whether these are actually at the bottom of the market (if you can find the information!).

BRL has NZ$2.5m of unrestricted cash, has minimal/no access to debt markets and while it has had a quarter or 2 of marginally positive cashflow, generally it makes no money - be sure to deduct the asset sales they have done to try to keep themselves afloat!!

The thermal coal assets are low quality. The coking coal assets are better, but a lot of the coal is NOT hard coking coal (see my other posts).

BRL needs to raise $50m-100m to get Buller working and at current coking coal prices is not even close to economic.

In terms of M&A - BRL is one of the better coal juniors (although management have been absolutely hopeless - we'll see how the new guys go, but the bar is very low!!) out there in terms of asset quality, but the question is whether anyone wants an undeveloped coking coal asset in one of the worst jurisdictions globally for coal projects or whether they will buy an operational coal project in QLD where most of the sector is for sale.

I still think the most likely outcome is BRL runs out of cash, is recapitalised and the people recapitalising it go well (but existing shareholders get significantly diluted).

I notice there are a few new posters on BRL, which is good because clearly there has been some register turnover and some stale bulls are gone (although the major holders are well underwater), but given BRL is close to all time lows, virtually everyone is underwater, which makes it hard for a sustained rally short term.

Also, maybe coking coal prices rally for here given 30%+ (according to Wood Mackenzie) of coking coal projects are currently loss making.

I am sure everyone can agree that it is better Hamish has gone!!!

Anyway, we'll see and good luck.