ConclusionThe biggest trend that looks to be emerging in Q1, 2024 for the EV metals sector is a negative supply response from producers. Producers are cutting CapEx, scaling back expansion, and in some cases reducing or stopping production. Expect to see a lot more of this in H1, 2024.They say “the cure for low prices is low prices”. Well that’s exactly where we are now in the cycle. The next 3-6 months is likely to see the washout phase, where many miners collapse, reduce production or put their mine into care and maintenance. There is no point running a mine and selling a limited resource and making no profit. I will end with three well known sayings:“Bear markets are the author of bull markets”“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”“You have suffered through the pain, now hang around for the gain.”Given the EV metals markets have been in a bear market for the past 15-18 months the end is near, and we should expect some recovery during H2, 2024, assuming EV sales can grow at a reasonable rate. QUOTE The current malaise of prices will not remain for long all investment decisions are based long term supply IMO
(20min delay)
