Interesting article looking at the projected US critical...

Interesting article looking at the projected US critical material requirements.

Link to full article.

Mineral Supply Chain Bottlenecks Impacting EV Growth

Graphite and Cobalt the Limiting Factors
Graphite is the main mineral constraint for EV batteries, but cobalt is also an obstacle to large-scale EV deployment if a combination of NMC and NCA batteries are used to meet demand. The model showed that an increase in other key minerals— aluminium, copper, lithium, manganese, and nickel—will not improve the production output if the level of graphite and cobalt supply doesn’t increase, meaning that graphite and cobalt production are going to have to be the two driving factors if EV demand is to be met (otherwise they will be the limiting factors).

Based on the new announcements for new natural graphite mines and synthetic graphite plants in the US, alongside graphite production from their partner countries, the US could have access to 173,000 tonnes of graphite per year by 2026. This could further increase to 225,000 tonnes per year by 2032. However, this is still not enough to meet the required annual EV sales by 2032.

Even assuming the most optimal battery chemistry (NMC 811), the US would require 331,000 tonnes of battery-grade graphite to be available. This is a 590% increase in graphite production compared to today. If a mix of battery chemistries are utilised (due to cost constraints), the increase in graphite production required could be as high as 880%.

For cobalt, around 37,000 tonnes would be required per year to meet demand. This is 69% more than is produced today, but it is not as drastic of an increase compared to graphite. In fact, this number could drop to only a 42% increase in cobalt production compared to today if a range of battery chemistries are utilised—the opposite of how it would affect the graphite supply chain.

Mineral constraints outside of graphite and cobalt have become less important, and the present-day mineral production of aluminium, copper, lithium, manganese, and nickel is sufficient to meet the electrification goals of the new US policy in all sales scenarios.