Cobalt Blue Holdings (ASX:COB) analyst Joel Crane said the ban...

Cobalt Blue Holdings (ASX:COB) analyst Joel Crane said the ban has resulted in cobalt refineries – mostly based in China – scrambling to secure feedstock “putting significant upward pressure on prices.”So much so, that Chinese state-controlled mining company MMG suspended operations at its new processing plant at its Kinsevere mine in the DRC shortly after its opening due to a price slump and the export ban.That slump was caused by a supply flood that’s now drawing the ire of the DRC Government. China Molybdenum, also known as CMOC, was the biggest culprit. It produced 114,165t last year – largely from the Tenke Fungurume mine where copper production is continuing to expand. That’s more than double its 2023 output of 55,526t and well above its 70,000t upper guidance limit.CMOC had floated plans to produce 100,000-120,000t of the metal in 2025, with DRC stepping in to stem the bleeding.“For the first time in recent history, a government policy has effectively frozen such a dominant share of a global commodity market,” Crane said.“The four-month export ban has sent shockwaves through the market. “After two years of oversupply and falling prices, many refiners had cut back on stockpiles.“With supply suddenly limited, the market is under intense strain to secure material.“Adding to the pressure is seasonality—post-Lunar New Year restocking typically drives demand, especially from the consumer electronics sector, which accounts for ~30% of cobalt use.” QUOTE
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