We can probably run some assumptions of our own now. Here is my...

We can probably run some assumptions of our own now. Here is my crack at it:

The U.S. sales for the 6 months into Dec 2019 brought in $ 9.2m. Let's just call this $18m of 12 months of sales.

The reference material above implies that the U.S. is the biggest market for Burns Care. If we take the extrapolation that in 2025 China is USD270m vs. Japan USD67m, which makes China in 2025 approx 4x larger as a market than Japan, let's assume in today's numbers the U.S. is 5x larger than Japan on a Burns Care sales basis.

That means for Burns care we have $18m / 5 ~ let's approximate this to USD4m in sales.

If we want to take a separate model we could just take populations and use a ratio on this ~ 126m / 327m * USD18m is approx. USD7m

Normally, I would suggest we adjust down for pricing in Japan, but Recell is considered good value to buyers in this area already, so I suspect the negotiation would not be excessive. We probably do need to consider dropping the number due to the minimal AVH investment that might go to the Japan launch (no details yet - but the current agreement has been have the sole distribution bear costs to get to market (at least for the approvals).

As others have mentioned before, the value proposition for the Japan market is not burns, but Diabete related lesions wound care etc. There will be some market for vitiligo as well with c. 1m people in the population with some level of discolouration. Although a large percentage with vitiligo are probably older or don't have it in an area that greatly concerns them.
ref. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1346-8138.12099

The more interesting questions for the Japan market is probably getting an understanding when AVH will be able to treat for these other conditions. I remember reading something (that sounded vague) about the JPDMA application was for broad application - does anyone remember the details about this?

The good thing about the Japan market is that it is largely honest. You can build relationships and rely on them which leads to dependable revenue. Wholesalers do tend to over promise though - and once the contract is locked in and results are lacking, they then talk about how the pie is only so big while your products just languish in their catalogues.