ATH 16.7% 0.5¢ alterity therapeutics limited

You raise some good points chucke but we have to admit that...

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    You raise some good points chucke but we have to admit that timing on a stock like this is essential if one is not prepared for such a capital intensive and risky journey. I wouldn’t focus on the sp too much and I know that’s hard. Fovus on the market cap of the company. At .003 the company is worth around 13m fully diluted with full spp participation (around 4.37b shares I believe). So sure the sp might seem like it’s over but from 13m a rerate could still be significant.

    I was thinking about it over the weekend and now that the company has hit the 2023 milestones and p2 will be completed by November, it looks like home stretch is in sight. It’s not game over until the fat ath434 lady sings and so much time and money has been spent that to lose hope now would be a mistake imo. That being said I think we all understand the chances of success.

    I also want to point out that 2023 was a significantly weak performance for the biotech industry in relation to the sp500. Recently I read a headline saying that the gates foundation has allocated a record budget into healthcare r&d. Hopefully those are indicators of better times ahead.

    lastly it’s hard to predict what the sp will do as the registry is mainly made up of punters from what I can ascertain, and one institutional investor. It will be interesting to see the top 20 post spp. it appears like it will lead to a greater hold in Australian and nz based investors and a reduction in bnym adrs under control. The sp action is encouraging as 1.87 Athe holds and Ath .004 buyers remain intact. I note that in the past I’ve found interesting buying opportunities when Ath is priced below Athe. Though at around Centrepoint it hits the mark currently.

    I’ve been watching and trading this for 3.5 years, far less than you have I think. But I can’t help to think that this year will be a culmination of the last 3.5. I’ve got a very good capital reserve coming into 2024 as a result of my bond portfolio and previous trades I’ve made so believe the risk and reward, both being extreme, is worth the punt for me. Short term I think .006-.007 is achievable again from a trading perspective but we shall see.

    gltah and dyor
 
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Last trade - 16.10pm 03/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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