After months of foot-dragging, the European Union decided Monday to back the U.S. call for a U.N. Security Council resolution to threaten Sudan with sanctions if the slaughter in the western region of Darfur continues. Arab militias, backed by the government in Khartoum, have already killed some 50,000 black Muslims and driven 1.2 million people into quasi-concentration camps where the mass rapes and killings continue and hundreds of thousands face almost certain death from hunger and disease.
But the EU's endorsement of the U.S. position doesn't guarantee the draft resolution will actually pass this week in New York. In addition to Pakistan and Algeria, which feel their "Muslim solidarity" must be with the regime in Khartoum and not with their fellow Muslims starving to death, veto-wielding Russia and China also resist pressuring the government. Big business is at risk. Russia's MiG corporation has just dispatched two new MiG-29 fighters to Sudan out of a total order of 12 fighter jets, a deal worth around $200 million. And the company badly needs the cash.
But Sudan's massive oil reserves might be the key to understanding the politics surrounding this conflict. Sudan wants to raise its oil production and Block 6, an oil field partly located in southern Darfur, is an important part of this plan. These reserves have certainly caught Beijing's attention. The concessions for Block 6 are in the hands of the China National Petroleum Corporation, the biggest foreign investor in the Sudanese oil industry.
The picture wouldn't be complete without mentioning the most promising oil field. Block 5 is situated in the south, where Khartoum just agreed on a peace deal after a 21-year campaign against the local Christian and animist Africans that left two million dead. Because of the fighting, TotalfFinaElf, the French oil giant that owns the concession to this field, suspended operations there in the 1980s. It can only hope to tap those reserves if the peace holds, which may go some way to explaining why Paris had been so soft on Khartoum over Darfur while the peace deal in the south was being negotiated.
Supporting a tough resolution might in the end be a low-risk strategy for the EU given the likelihood of a Sino-Russian veto. So while the genocide unfolds, arms contracts and oil concessions decide about life and death in Sudan.
We shouldn't pretend, however, that Khartoum would suddenly repent and call off the militias even if a strong resolution could pass at the U.N. It's paid no price for its behavior so far. So, once again, probably only a coalition of the willing could put an end to the suffering. The British have just said they could dispatch up to 5,000 soldiers at short notice to the region. It is doubtful whether the U.S., already stretched in two wars, could afford to make significant contributions. The French, on the other hand, already have 5,000 troops in Africa, including neighboring Chad. Maybe they could help out?
