Looks like I owe you an apology. Our reserve bank has just joined that bandwagon. They have just revised their expectation from inflation dropping to 2% to now expecting a peak of 6% (I think we are around 5% now) and then coming off more slowly to still be at 4.3% next year. That's a big turn-around from what they were saying a couple of days ago. Like I said, even the experts don't know what's going to happen and need to revise expectations as things don't go to plan. Those expectations could be turned upside down again 6 months from now.
This makes me wonder if that base case US$800 MAP price used in a recent Canadian company PEA on a large phosphate project in Canada, which was based on the average of three market forecasts, is itself going to prove too conservative. The recent price in Angola was around US$1,300. The delay in our DFS is going to have a positive impact on the NPV as those fertiliser price forecasts continue to climb. The scoping study maximum MAP price considered was $643. So far we have gone from a high case of $643, which was expected to be highly unlikely, to now perhaps a base case of $800 and an expected price of something above that to calculate NPV? What will the new high case be?
This green ammonia project will also benefit strongly. The TH today is almost certainly going to be for the co to announce the tariff agreement. That will lock in very low electricity prices. If inflation persists, ammonia prices should stay higher for longer and that means much higher profits with that extremely cheap electricity locked in. This stock is going to be a fantastic inflation hedge.
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4 | 235832 | 0.053 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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