Currently the EV market is flagging a bit, especially with the US putting import tariffs on renewables, batteries and EVs, plus the noise about taking too long to charge and not much value in second hand EVs..
EVs need something to really increase the desirability and niobium added to batteries making charging times of only a few minutes adds spark to the industry. Plus extended life by adding Niobium means second hand value will be greatly increased. Niobium added to batteries is basically a killer app that will re-energise EV sales, making a wild scramble for all lithium battery manufacturers to have Niobium in their batteries.
Capital will pour into the Niobium/battery industry when the world wakes up to the importance of fast charging and longer battery life, with the sector growing at amazing accelerating rates, once it starts in earnest...
CBMM are making a mistake thinking only 35,000 tonnes of Niobium oxide will be needed by 2030. If/when it takes off, the demand will quickly outstrip supply as everyone will suddenly want Niobium batteries. Demand will be 2-3 times their prediction at least.
If the batteries do not perform as expected and in testing, then there will not be a demand for anything close to the 35,000 tonnes either, and it's back to ferro-niobium..
Like most aspects of the modern world, I expect the testing that's been good enough to ramp up their production of niobium oxide, is a gross underestimation of what demand will be once everyone wants fast charging Niobium batteries..
Even for home or grid storage, a fast charging Niobium battery, so that one or 2 hours of peak sunshine can totally recharge batteries will be a huge winner ith everyone wanting those instead of the old slow charging ones..
At current Niobium prices, adding 1% to the anodes of batteries will be an immaterial cost to battery producers, but allow them to keep in the battery game. Market forces will make sure EVERY manufacturer has to have Niobium anode batteries..
The real question is about the performance of Niobium in batteries. My answer is yes, it's a great improvement, so the use has to take off far in excess of what CBMM or anyone else is expecting. Given Niobium for this use, I will not be surprised to see the price of Niobium to be much higher by 2030-32 because of production constraints around the world, and the strong demand that no-one could see coming....
AIMHO of course...
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