Colin, you keep on saying this but you ignore the obvious.
Firstly the Chinese supply was always online. The export duty was increased to 35% in February this year, and then further to 150% when the price of RP had already risen. The Chinese are expecting to cut duty by the end of the year.
Given the price of RP is currently $400 FOB Jordan, what makes you think (a) that the duty will be cut back to February levels and (b) that if they do that the price will revert to levels seen six months earlier, the uptick from $50 to the level in February having absolutely nothing to do with Chinese export duty.
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