On the other hand, CitiSB has PDN as a buy with a target of $4.40 or higher.
Here is their summary of PDN vs ERA - one of the better comparisons I've seen.
==== START QUOTE ====
from CitiSB
Paladin over ERA - Uranium sector continues to be out of favour as spot prices languishing at ~US$40/lb. We have downgraded earnings for both stocks on lower uranium prices for 2010-12 and also reduced our target prices. Paladin is still our preferred exposure for production growth, uncontracted exposure and open register.
Key challenge for ERA is extending mine life/lease, but it is cheaper than PDN on earnings multiples. Risks Short Term - Spot uranium price has continued to languish at ~US$41/lb in a market that looks adequately supplied near term. Spot price forecasts downgraded to US$50/lb in 2011/12, previously US$60/lb. Uranium Increased to US$50/lb LT - Long-term uranium price increased to US$50/t, previously US$25/t. Key driver behind the increase is the higher cost of marginal production and price required to make new mines economic.
PDN Buy Rated - Earnings downgraded ~40% in FY11/12E on lower spot price and allowance for higher costs. Target price reduced to A$4.40/share, previously A$5.40/share, but we maintain our Buy (1H) recommendation.
ERA Hold Rated - Earnings downgrades more modest at 6-9% in FY11/12E driven by offsetting downgrades to the A$ to ~85?. Target price reduced to A$15.10/share and Hold (2H) recommendation maintained.
PDN Production Growth - PDN production expected to increase from 4.3mlb in FY10 to 8.3mlb in FY12 and 11mlb in FY14. Issues at problem child Kayelekera look to be resolved so key remaining risk is securing off-take for ~50% of volume that is yet to be contracted. With China increasingly short uranium and term contract prices still US$58-59/lb, we do not see this as a major risk.
ERA Running Flat out to Stand Still - Open pit closing in 2012 means that ERA needs the heap leach to be approved in early 2011 to be able to maintain current production rates. Key challenges will be environmental approval and keeping traditional owners onside. Underground required beyond heap leach to maintain production, but likely to run into challenging 2021 mine lease expiry.
==== END QUOTE ====
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 1280 | 10.730 |
1 | 2340 | 10.710 |
2 | 765 | 10.700 |
1 | 928 | 10.680 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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10.850 | 10000 | 1 |
10.900 | 21880 | 4 |
10.920 | 9063 | 1 |
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