Broker Report - Price Target $1.35 to $2.18

  1. 947 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 165
    Someone posted the link last week. (Thankyou)

    I have added some key excerpts from the doc worthy of further discussion!

    BROKER REPORT (late Sept 2024)
    SCP Equity Research (Formally SPROTT - A highly regarded Canadian Broker) - Initiate with BUY rating and A$1.35/sh price targetOur 5Mtpa Scoping Study base case drives an NPV5%-2,000 of A$795m aheadof the 2Q25 DFS. Adding cash / options, derives our A$920m Group NAV.Applying a 0.5xNAV multiple to the asset, we initiate with a BUY rating and fullydilutedA$1.35/sh PT. Sensitizing this, spot NAV5%-2,650/oz of A$1.6bnequates to A$2.18/sh. Although permitting, funding and build take time andwork, they carry little geological risk in our view, hence a spot NAV +380% abovethe current share price underpins our high conviction on Ausgold. Value driversi) 2Q25 DFS, (ii) exploration results, (iii) permitting progress in CY25, (iv) landaccess agreements in 2Q25.

    BEST MANAGEMENT TEAM IN OZ I RECKON (With significant skin in the game) AND WELL FUNDED TO BOOT
    Corporate History: Right team, Right price – developing Western’s Australia’s next gold mineRecent changes have positioned Ausgold as a top contender among global gold developers in our view. Sinceacquiring the project in 2010, Ausgold has focused on extensive drilling, cracking the geology ‘code’ under thedirection of Managing Director Dr. Matthew Greentree (PhD structural geologist) since 2017, iteratively growingthe resource to >3Moz (+377%) by 3Q23 with initial reserves in 2022. Improved geological understanding is evidentby Ausgold finding more ounces with fewer holes in recent MRE updates. With critical mass unlocked, the gamechangercame in May 2024 with the appointment of John Dorward, former Roxgold CEO, as Executive Chairman.Having led Roxgold through drilling, construction to production at Yaramoko, and ultimately a sale to Fortuna forC$1.1bn, Dorward brings critical experience and connections to steer Ausgold through its DFS / FID and beyond.Strengthening the board further are Adrian Goldstone, a sustainability and development expert from DundeeCorporation, and Mark Turner, an operational veteran with global experience. Notably, Dundee GoodmanMerchant Partners has a 10.9% stake, joined by Jupiter Asset Management at 12.7% after a A$38m shareplacement in 3Q24 – testament to Ausgold’s rising stature. The company is well-funded through to FID with A$24m.

    DRILL/DRILL/DRILL (Huge drill program set to start shortly - Watch for an announcement this week)
    Is that all? Untested Southern Zone shows runway for potential ‘same again’ along strikeWith the same 11km RC program, drills will move to the Southern Zone, which offers a promising growthopportunity, with the potential to nearly double the mineralized strike length of the project – this is where thefun starts. Digging in, the implied ~9.5km of largely untested strike, includes areas around Rifle Range, Dingo, andLukin prospects to the south. Early drilling results have revealed highlights such as 10.0m @ 2.9 g/t Au from 84mand 6.0m @ 4.5 g/t Au from 32m, in mafic rocks akin to the Central Zone as an encouraging start. The 2.5km RifleRange area is crucial as it shows mineralization that could link the Central and Southern Zones, albeit at depth, soless of a priority to test in the short term. More attractive is Lukin, where gold mineralization has been confirmedalong a 4.5km strike, though only the northern 1.5km is currently within the MRE – talking to the runway here. A1,000m RC drilling program will begin in 4Q24 to grow the Northern resource area (Datatine), with further drillingplanned for 1Q25 to target additional gold potential along the southern portion. Put simply, we think this near-termexploration target is a key driver of excitement as drilling progresses, and ‘in for free’ at the company’s currentmarket cap.

    WELL FUNDED
    Current plan: Now well-funded after completion of the A$38m equity raise in August with ~A$24m cash (as atAugust 30, 2024), net of license acquisitions last quarter (final $7.64m of $10.8m total), Ausgold continues to makesignificant progress on its flagship KGP project. As the largest undeveloped free-milling open-cut gold project inthe region, KGP spans a 17km mineralized trend with three key zones: the Northern Zone (Datatine), Central Zone(Jackson, Olympia, Jinkas, Jinkas South), and Southern Zone (Rifle Range, Dingo, Lukin). In the June 2024Quarter, Ausgold advanced its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), now slated for completion in 2Q25. The DFS isundergoing a strategic review by the newly strengthened Board, which is considering a phased processingthroughput - starting at up-sized 3.6Mtpa and expanding to 5-5.5Mtpa. This approach aims to reduce upfront capitalcosts and maximize benefits from higher mill feed grades in the initial years, with expansion funded by operatingcash flow. Key focus areas for the DFS include improving gold recovery rates, optimizing the design of the tailingsstorage facility, and refining the site layout to minimize environmental impact. Geotechnical studies,hydrogeological work, and grade control drilling, particularly in the Jinkas South area, are ongoing to derisk earlymine planning and enhance reserve definition. On the exploration front, Ausgold is planning to commence a19,000m program in October 2024. A total of 11,000m of RC drilling is planned proximal to KGP aimed at i)derisking the project via grade control/infill, targeting areas of first 18months of planned production (incl. Jinkasand Jinkas S) and ii) and growing the project through testing high-grade zones within the Central Zone as well asalong strike ~4km south at the Lukin Prospect (5,000m RC planned here). The company is also focused on regionalexploration across its extensive 4,000km² tenure with 8,000m of RC is planned to test seven regional prospectsas satellite potential.

    DID SOMEONE SAY RERATE?
    The best part: Ausgold trades at just US$76/oz reserve and US$45/oz resource vs. Capricorn at US$494/ozreserve and US$293/oz resource. Assuming conservative 65-70% conversion, Ausgold’s DFS could see 1.6-1.7Moz pittable reserves, putting the stock at ~US$58-61/oz. While Capricorn is now in year four of commercialproduction, we think Ausgold is on a similar trajectory and poised for a re-rate discussed further below.

    Been accumulating for the last 4 years - Now is our time IMO
    GLTA
    HB
 
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)
Last
60.5¢
Change
-0.005(0.82%)
Mkt cap ! $256.3M
Open High Low Value Volume
61.0¢ 62.0¢ 60.0¢ $257.3K 422.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 5000 60.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
62.0¢ 3826 4
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 08/08/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
AUC (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.