Another point to make here is this; analysts can only make...

Another point to make here is this; analysts can only make assumptions based on the information they are able to gather from the company, its peers, down the pub, and via oblique methods of research (ASIC, titles searches, etc).

The assumptions the analysts make, and the price targets which come out of them, are made often from a position of incredible ignorance. Having been one at one stage during my life, and seen how quite a few of those companies I thought reasonable ended up (LAF, CES, ADY*, MTB*) in the fullness of time, due to additional information coming to light subsequent to my analysis, all I can say about BBI is that you have to take a grain of assumption with the salt which is the price targets given out by these guys - and these aren't, as a rule, stupid guys making these analyses.

This comes back to the crux of "what don't we know about BBI?" - a problem which has probably got a lot worse since Phil Green et al got spilled from the Board and took their knowledge of the skeletons in the closet with them. If Ord, Commonwealth, etc, knew the full truth about BBI, would they change their price targets?

The other really interesting thing is - are they analysing the company and its affairs critically or are they little better than most HotCopper posters, just parroting the company's data back at the public, coming up with a valuation based on some opaque inputs of their own (eg; Atlas was valued at up to $16 - implied - by Merrily Lynch; clearly they miscalled it and my call of $1 in May was right; a bit of a difference in the model).

If the analysts don't put the company's affairs and strategy to the test - of saying, well, really can (for example) Atlas really be worth $16 in 2009 if it only sells 0.5Mt of ore in that financial year? - and they don't make their case explicit, then odds are their analysis is worth less than mine.

Which, by the by, was to book a 60% loss at 23c when I realised their current assets were significantly less than their liabilities, and their market cap was incredibly dwindled, leaving them no wriggle-room. Now I'm thinking if its worth buying back my 10,000 shares for a grand or less and warehousing them.

Might be worth a shot!

* - A case in point. What you may love, when ignorant, you may loathe when the veil is lifted.