Thanks Princess for the link to the broker opinion. It is fun to...

Thanks Princess for the link to the broker opinion. It is fun to project if/when/how much a Company will produce profit. I note Canaccord estimate eps as minus 1 cent this FY20 and PLUS 1 cent FY21. That kind of ties into my thinking that with the new contracts now signed, and production doubling, Atomo should move into profit.

I would love to see the 'detail' of how Canaccord got their numbers. I got mine by 'guessing' a doubling of production makes the small MINUS $2.2 mill EBITDA below (see proforma H1 FY20) move into positive. I think units they produce will be much more than double the first half year volume.

However, as a poster here said, we need to wait until the full year results to run a financial ruler over this. Because for the life of me the proforma H1 they gave in April and the Cashflow they just gave a couple days ago really lead to some 'huh?' questions. For example (the numbers 1.2.3.4. here relate to my blue numbers in the pic)

1. 1st half 'revenue' is $937k - and full year 'receipts from customers' is $2654. Yet we have q4 as $1,837k. This implies Q3 was NIL??????? But maybe 'revenue' is different to 'receipts from customers' on a timing basis. (when in doubt EBITDA is always correct!)

2. R&D was a tiny $43k 1st half proforma , but full year cash was $1388, and Q4 $452k; therefore q3 was about $800k; but on yearly accounts R&D can become an asset, I think, so R&D cash flow vs the pro forma may be a silly thing to try to line up

3. in the proforma I needed to add cost of sales and 'other opex' to get 544+1472 = $2016 first half year; to line up with cash flow "manufacturing and OPEX' which is $5489 for full year, and since q4 was $1819, that leaves q3 as $1654.... so hooray,that makes sense

4. staff costs at half year were $1096; and for full year is $2459 and q4 was $1131; therefore staff costs in q3 were $232; ha, ha that does not make sense

My point is: the published cash flow does not tie in well with the published proforma EBITDA calcs. But the more info we get (soon) will allow us to see really what is a fair price.

So we are left 'assuming' Atomo is well under priced, currently, because

a) Canaccord think so (based on some detail we dont have access to)
...but based on info we DO have...
b) the EBITDA before doubling+ contracts for units was only a 'little negative'
c) the CEO noted the margins for OEM was closer to 48% - and the Covid margins are higher as well, so the 42% gross profit margin below for 1s half year will likely increase
d) from multiple angles it seems FY21 can move into profit

But any buyers are flying a little blind. I hope the sellers / shorters or profit takers will vanish once the full set of accounts are out and Atomo give a little guidance re FY21. They likely 'can' and 'should' give some guidance overall based on their contracts and manufacturing in place - not what MIGHT happen, but what is contracted to happen.