AVA 4.35% 11.0¢ ava risk group limited

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  1. 538 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 94
    they are forecasting FY21 EBITDA of $20.8 million

    logistics division expected to do $50 million revs
  2. 1,799 Posts.
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    Yep. They’re higher than me on EBITDA but below my valuation. Interesting their Val method is sum of the parts, which is probably due to the potential sale of Logistics.

    They have a 2021 PE of just 8.4x. The small ords is around 20x. Even discounting against that index and applying a 16x multiple gets me to $1.28 on their numbers. It’s worth noting they expect EPS to fall in 22 and 23 but this is due to a segment mix change and tax losses being absorbed by FY23.

    Still LOTS of upside here. They also have a 3c dividend in FY21 even though EPS is expected to be 8c. That’s a low payout ratio. I’d expect something closer to 4c, which gives me a market yield of over 5% and for holders that have owned this for a little bit, a very very high yield.
 
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