Hi Chass,
Evidence that Bel1 holds gas/oil seems compelling. As we speak, they are probably halfway in the drill towards the Bel1 zone.
Further, as stated by FAR and CNE, Bel1 has now become an "add-on" to SNE.... a bit more cream at the top while emphasis has shifted to SNE4 ( I trust you know/realize that SNE4 is part and parcel of the same well.
Unlike SNE1 where they struck oil at top, and then nothing further down hole (which was negatively perceived by the market), we now sit with a reverse situation. FAR/CNE have high confidence that SNE4 is also going to deliver like SNE3... that should counter any negative impact caused by Bel1 if Bel1 turned out "dry" (which looks highly doubtful.
Also, CNE announced that results will be released upon completion of the entire Bel1/SNE4 well ( for this I hope the THP will indeed be very tight, particularly if BEL1 delivers nothing). I do think though that if Bel1 shows up good oil, there's no ways that it will be kept quiet.
For reasons previously stated in earlier post, I hope FAR will trust their gut feeling and acquired knowledge re Bel1, and risk CR only after Bel1/SNE4.
Also been stated by Phillip321 ( who is a fair bit in the know on these type of things) that he can not foresee, for reasons stated by him, that there will be a CR at this stage (that is, before Bel1 results, because that CR may well be done on the back of confidential information) Already ORS would be approaching the Bel1 zone by next weekend .... so there is not much time if CR was to be undertaken before Bel1 outcome. BUT WE NEVER KNOW.
I've given my reason why it would be a very well calculated risk (great pun that one
) to do a CR after Bel1/SNE4.
FAR still has a fair bit of cash on hand.... as yet there is no certainty that the will in fact proceed with the 3 contingent wells but I suspect they will ( because of cheap mates rates on ORA) and if they do proceed, ( which will be fronm 1 July 2016 onwards ( we are currently covered till end of June) there will be almost 2 months available in which a CR can be undertaken... hopefully in a very conducive environment... on the back of good results from SNE4 and/or Bel1 and/or POO.
Apologies for long winded post but that pretty much covers my reading of current situation as well as my reasoning why a CR ought not/should not be undertaken in the next week or so, rather a month or two down the track on the back of good news. And (almost forgot) , SNE resource is yet to be upgraded following SNE3 analysis which would push SNE into the commerciality "window (even though they won't declare it) and this too will be a trigger for appreciating the SP at which a CR can be undertaken. So, there's many reasons and lots of time for a CR further down the track.. no need as yet.
Cheers
(20min delay)