Broker V Reality, page-3

yeah - reality is brokers now have a bucketload to unload and the BS spin will come thick and fast until they can get rid of.

Looks like the brokers got around 33% so as you say not exactly successful and when you have to mention BPT as a compelling reason then yu know you dont have much esp when it comes to the imagination department.

However, one doesnt know who the conditional placement is going to which apparently is pre committed. So if placement is to the same actors then would not have expected them to take up their full entitlement given underwritten. When one thinks about it brokers took up around 33% of the 40m so lets say they paid about 4m each - of which they probably got close to 2m each in fees - so not hurting too much and of course they will eventually get rid of.

The cynical view is that Eric and his band of thieves probably were just going to do a placement until someone, to their annoyance, said what about the retail guys we have to give them something - so they relented ie they raising 331m of which roughly 33m to retail. 10%.

Having said all that, offer at 5,9 and i think price on acquisition would be about 17c +/- 2c in 3/4 years time which is comparable to their 16-20c. Lets say we 40% off and only 10-12c then still 2x new money in 4 years

And there is some merit to once being back into the index this will add value given the penchant for passive investing these days - the day it gets back there will be a good day as all the asx300 and small cap passive funds will be buying. Althoug not exactly a compelling reason to buy

value come down the road and many things can happen between 2018 and 2023 so substantial risk involved. I personally will take up the offer and just sit on it. I could of course go in today and buy at no opportunity cost - its going to be a long wait b4 we see value.

The biggest issue I have is management never hold calls or tell us anything - everything with this company has to be a guesstimate.

where will oil be in 2023 - thats the million$ question