My valuation stated many months ago was the range $11 to $13. I have not recalculated it, but I am happy to simply move the lower boundary to $12 and leave the upper boundary at $13. That is, I am now more certain.
A valuation is personal to the valuer - it is not a TP (target price), which requires one to anticipate what mr market is going to think. Also, a TP only makes sense if it is given a time limit. That said, I expect the SP to reach $13 before 30/06/2016, because the fundamentals are there to justify $13.
I would not be surprised if the ROE moves up a notch to 24% for FY2016. Metrics like NPAT can be "managed", and in CCP's case, this would typically mean retarded via over provisioning loans, and over amortising PDLs to give management greater leeway to cushion the books in leaner times. Consequently, reported ROE and underlying ROE may vary.
CCP Price at posting:
$10.54 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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