So basically UBS doesn't intend to buy or sell. fine.
I am pretty sure that some value is attributed to all assets, though without any cashflow from SDV or JB their value is probably only their estimated sale price which divided over the life of each asset would be pretty cheap I would say. However the NPV of SDV cannot be ignored. Although delivery times are a bit blurry right now I have thought a reasonable target would be 7 years from early 2017 for decent production which accounts for various stages of construction and in part to the lag which occurs as the ponds need to evaporate after they are constructed. Which places small production around 2020 and ramp up to 2024.
I thought this was pretty conservative and still gives a decent return even if you project it out in linear value increases.
Even though there are strong calls for updates on SDV I don't think anyone actually expects an announcement in the realm of 'here is a photo of our shipment of Carbonate we just sent to [customer]' any time this year.
The value holds because people think that there won't be better opportunity than now to get the stock at the current price in the future.
I interpret this report to be suggesting that:
* The value of the company looks like it will increase in the future so there is desire to have a holding to take advantage of the future growth.
* As the major developments are a little way off yet some [other] investors may leave and try to return at a closer completion date, hence not buying just in case this happens, and a clear bargain is triggered.
* There is a possibility that the sp will not go down as investors retain value as they wait for the big announcements, hence not selling.
* Neither a clear bargain nor overpriced. Which appears to be a pretty decent reflection of the sentiment from HC as well.
Of course, if the sp goes back up to $4.00 over the next few months you would think that the closer it gets to 2020 the more the FOMO will kick in hard.
GLTA
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