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Coal remains hot

COMMONWEALTH Bank of Australia (CBA) analysts Lachlan Shaw and David Moore have identified an interesting split in the thermal coal market. In essence, they reckon that Newcastle coal may attract higher prices in coming months than shipments from South Africa to Europe because of the differing economic performances of the respective markets. Electricity demand is bouncing back in Asia but lagging in Europe. But this will be short-lived because Indian swing buyers will quickly take advantage of the Asia-Atlantic arbitrage, which will blunt the price divergences.

Nevertheless, coal, whether it be thermal or coking, is tipped to be one of the hottest commodities in 2010.

Two reports have come out in the past few days on Whitehaven Coal (WHC), which exports all its production, 70 per cent of it thermal, coming from four mines. Both Deutsche Bank and Stock Resource have put "buy" on WHC. Deutsche notes that WHC has good rail transport but may face bottlenecks at Newcastle's wharves. Stock Resource has a good look at the new Narrabri North mine, which will supply low-sulphur thermal coal for export.

Meanwhile, Fat Prophets has changed its recommendation regarding Cockatoo Coal (COK) from "hold" to "buy". Analyst Nick Raffan said COK's management had managed to turn a profit from the small Baralaba mine, a project that others thought would never be a goer