With more talk that WPL has interest from China as well as the usual NWS partners in its decision to selldown equity in their Browse LNG project, I thought it would be interesting to see what sort of comparable value a proven Poseidon could realise for KAR. According to brokers (yes, I know..) WPL are expected to realise >$1.5b for 15-25% of the 13tcf + 360mmbbl field:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Browse-valuations-bolster-LNG-optimism-pd20120130-QZN6L?OpenDocument&src=hp18
On a boe basis, WPLs Browse project works out to be c. 2,527 mmboe.
AuD 1.5b for 15% works out to be $3.95 boe while @ 25% it is $2.35 boe.
KARs p90,p50 and p10 numbers of 3,7 and 15Tcf work out at 501mmboe, 1176mmboe and 2520mmboe of which KARs share is:
1P = 200 mmboe
2P = 470 mmboe
3P =1,008 mmboe
Applying a $2-$4 range per boe as per WPL gives a value for Poseidon of 400-800m at the p90 level and 1-2b at the p50 level.
Being (realistically) optimistic and assuming that a 7tcf number is indeed proven up by 2014, it is plausible that KAR could realise up to $2b for its stake (to bring whichever Santos basin oil find is most profitable into production) or perhaps sell down to 10% with the cash funding all/almost all of its 10% CAPEX share. I'd favour the former but who knows what will happen over the next two years in Brazil!
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With more talk that WPL has interest from China as well as the...
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