TVN 2.67% 7.3¢ tivan limited

I have been on the TNG "gravy train" in past year or so, hence...

  1. 322 Posts.
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    I have been on the TNG "gravy train" in past year or so, hence relatively new compared to some long term holders and in this time I have been mainly observing commentary, sentiment etc towards TNG from the sidelines.

    From this BRR interview and everything leading up to it I deduce the following (of course, just my opinion):

    If I were a banker/financier, how would I be viewing TNG?
    - Risk profile to raise 950m-1b: High
    - MOU's etc in place: risk profile trending lower
    - SMS announcement re: TIVAN commercialization - up to 50-60% cost from DFS information potentially locked away, "not guaranteed" as PB states, therefore risk profile: still somewhat medium to high (also, details of joint commercialization & IP sharing, royalties, etc. yet to be discussed as per the TH announcement yesterday)
    - EIS when granted, risk profile: still somewhat medium
    - once TIVAN refinery cost is secured to EXIM etc, risk profile brings TNG to a level like any other junior miner ie still seeking funding for Mine operations (the fact that we have CAT finance etc in place obviously helps lower risk profile)

    Only when we get announcements around securing funding for refinery and/or mine operation or getting more binding Ti offtake type announcements, does the overall risk profile move from medium to low end i.e. moving towards production. With the economic conditions globally, as a financier, I would be hesitant to jump in straight away so the fact that PB is getting all these agreements/announcements out in the manner he is, is actually helping articulate the lowering of the risk profile for TNG but factually as it stands today there is still some uncertainty with the whole thing and important milestones remain to be completed.

    As per another post earlier today, they have jumped ship as they could not sustain their investment sitting idle (SP stagnant-ish). So as shareholder, whilst we believe in the story, are we getting too emotional/impatient in wanting those funding announcements and the SP to rocket up? Perhaps we might be. But if we are to believe in TNG over time, then we have to sit patiently and see all milestones get ticked one at a time. I am still a firm believer in the TNG story and await what PB has to say in the next few months.

    GLTAH
 
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