Thing is, and i know i keep harping on about it, we've (yet again) seen a SP leap when all the ino was already available in public domain. The real surprise is that Mr Mkt got a 'surprise' when HY results came out this morn.
BRS was driven down to an incredible 99.2c on Friday morning. I topped-up at $1.025 and SP closed back where it finished on thursday at 1.07. Yet as I (and plenty others) have posted... BRS had already given us the EBITDA for both FY16 and FY!& mid-last week! How can a SP tank so savagely the day beore result is due, and then rebound so powerfully? I don't know why it occurs but its exactly these situations where substantial (15-25%) profits can be made while holding just a week or 2!
This is a tricky mkt in a fragile world. I only look for stks i reckon have strong earnings for rest of Fy16 and for FY17. Ideally, stk also pays a decent div. Anything else is too risky.
So i research what's on offer and calculate my own IV. I then set a Buy Price and wait. If it doesn't trigger, it doesn't matter. Always a few others around esp in current high volatility environment. It happened with DWS (31 % profit), NVT, DOW and one other. Look at the graph. SP crusising then dips sharply only to leap on the 'surprise" result!
BRS report is spot on and more. Don't be concerned re 4.9c eps for 1H. they paid off 109m smackeroos in debt over past 12 months! That alone equates to 21.2cents eps! I expect 2H16 to outperform 1H16. time will tell.
So what are my great hopes still to report?
SWK: Sat at 11c for ages. Each 1c rise = 9%. Watch its HY report shoot out the lights but be warned... VERY low liquidity and hard to get in or out.
SFR: Just about the lowest cost Cu mine going. Again, the SP was driven down and closed at $.98 on Feb 3rd. Suddenly its all the rage and sitting at $5.75 as we approach HY ann. BUT many of the facts are in last months qtrly so why the "surprise"?
RFG: Very good FY15 in august with positive forecast for FY16. That was re-confirmed at AGM on 26/11. Yet SP now $4.22 significantly below the SP on 30/11 just after AGM?!? Will (once again) the actual result on 24/02 'surprise' the mkt? I hope so as am holding in expectation.
SPO: Now 91.5c. i've written a 100 posts re SPO and fully loaded
IFL: I respect poster madamswer ability to read balance sheets and he started recomending IFL many moons ago. I waited and enetered late January at $8.07. its fallen like a stone since and i've kept faith and topped-up since. Am waaay under at 7.89 av but i am expecting.... My guesstimates for FY16: eps 61c and 55c ffr divs. With (current) SP at 7.48 gives PE of 12.26 and more importantly gross div yield of 10.5%. Keep it for 13mths ( 3 divs) and total return is about 15%. I don't fully understand how IFL earns money but madamswer's posts combined with high div have persuaded me. dyor.
RXP: Small cap IT stk i hold high hopes for. Def at speccie end of spectrum.
EPD: also a small cap IT stk. I bought at 70c on 19/01/16. Unmitigated disaster as update followed 2 dates later and SP now at 25C!! It may get back to 40c so holding but lesson learned!! CEO was selling and i didn't spot it!
UGL: I'm virtually the only person who posts re this company. I feel it is overlooked by Mr Mkt and i have very high hopes esp for FY17. HY on 22/02 will tell us what's happening. Still some risk but I've got plenty.
There are a couple of others but am in buy queue. Sure I'll say something nearer the time. But the above cover much of what i currently have as long positions.
Takeaway: Buy BEFORE the HY result if you are convinced it will outperform most analysts estimates. High/very high sustainable looking divs also a big plus. Good luck.
PS. BRS has slipped to 1.135. Pity the buyback can't start now.
BRS Price at posting:
$1.14 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
