I use a DCF valuation as a first basis when calculating my expected price for a share (especially in a company such as BASS where we can get a fairly good expectation of cash flow in the future while remaining conservative). Using the following variables i end at share price of 3.8c today:
$1,000 profit per tonne
6,000 tones production starting from 1 July 2018 (for 2 years)
20,000 tones production starting from 1 July 2020 (for 5 years)
Growth rate of 3%
Cost of Capital of 10%
2.1 billion Shares
Keep in mind these figures are ultra conservative. Simply reducing the Kc to 5% increases that valuation to 4.7c which i believe is more than reasonable given the current financial climate with low interest rates worldwide (not that BASS even has any debt so the only cost is from equity). This valuation also only includes 7 years of free cash flows. Adding an 8th year at 20,000 tonnes (and the 5% Kc) increases the valuation again to 5.5c. Increase that out to 15 years and i get 10.6c. If someone can tell me what the expect life of the of stage 2 is given the proven graphite we have (not taking into account expected from Andapa, Mahela or Ambatofafana) i can adjust the numbers and see where it comes out to.
Growth is another variable which is likely to be significantly higher than 3% over the coming years.
I found it hard to get a reasonable terminal value for the project which i thought was acceptable (they were all too high from my opinion) so i left it out altogether (again lowering my expected SP). If BASS are able to recommission the mine, meet and maintain what i mentioned above, i have no doubt we are heading towards a market cap of $100 mill + before July 2018.
These variables are just my opinion, changing one can literally change everything so don't take any of this as being set in stone. My personal goal is between 5c-7.5c by July 2018 (again only if they are able to prove it profitable, and maintain production). I hope this just illustrates the potential cash cow this company could be even with ultra conservative numbers.
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