bsm, page-46

Again, the impossibility to time the market consistently has nothing to do with intelligence/or hard work/or not trying enough...even super computers and the most advanced algorithms cant do it. It is the result of a fundamental characteristic of human behaviour : human beings have free will, they are unpredictable and they are able to adapt/change their behaviour.

If you are able to time the market correctly in a consistent manner, then you must be already super rich, which obviously you are not, otherwise you wont be wasting your time investing in microcaps and participating in a public forum trying to convince others how smart you are, and confusing luck with intelligence.

There is no shame in luck. Its part of our lives. I do understand however that people get nervous when others point out to them that luck plays a major role in many things they did achieve in their lives.

I highly recommend you read Nicolas Nassim Taleb works, in order to appreciate the role of luck in the stock market and in our lives in general. He said :

"The people I go after are the false experts, those who do not accept the limits of their knowledge"

"Years ago, I noticed one thing about economics, and that is that economists didn't get anything right"

Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/n/nassim_nicholas_taleb.html