I dont think history is any guide here. The mine went into care & maintenance in 2016 after depletion of the Ban Phuc MSV.
At the time, the Nickel spot price was 8000$/t. It is now 83% higher.
The mine and plant were producing Ni/Cu/Co concentrates which are subject to a 20% tariff in Vietnam and trade at around 70% of the Ni spot price.
By selling our concentrate to a special vehicle for the downstream JV, we keep it in Vietnam and are not affected by any tariffs on the mining and concentrating parts of the business.
The downstream JV will be producing Ni sulfate which is subject to a 5% tariff only and trade at a ~15% premium to the Ni spot price.
Additionally, the previous owners didn't take advantage of the PGEs in the ore. We will be unlocking further value here.
There's a lot of factors at play but unless the Nickel price drops back down to 10-12k$ or the drilling goes terribly wrong, I think it's unlikely this will drop back down to 30c.
