Thanks for the analysis. Based on this, what’s your SP target?...

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Valknut2020

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10/01/21

14:29

Post #: 50065913
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Originally posted by Seenitallnow: ↑

Given the information in the Ann dated 10th Dec and SW's last Crux interview I think we can start to put some educated guestimates on the updated resource and NPV which will be announced in the PFS sometime around the end of Q1 but could be subject to delays depending on assay result timing. I think it is realistic to do this because the targets involved have been historically drill tested and we know the mineralisation is there including previous assay results.

SW has stated that they will attempt to add most if not all their current drill sites being the extension to Ban Phuc and KCZ, BC, TC, BK and KS(if any of these miss out on being included then of course they will make it into the DFS along with other new targets later in the year.)

From this I've come up with an updated MRE of 75mt at 0.6% Ni vs the maiden RE of 44mt at 0.53%.

Logic being that the 44mt from Ban Phuc/KCZ will extend to 50mt(hopefully very conservative as the feeder zone potential remans intact) plus the Ban Khoa DSS which is being compared to Ban Phuc could add another 20mt and then the remaining 3 sites being MSV ore bodies will maybe add 5mt plus a slight increase in the average grade.

This will extend the LOM to 15yrs assuming year 1 and 2 are using the existing concentrator before the 6mt concentrator kicks in for years 3-15.

Using unchanged SS assumptions on disc rate, Ni and NCM price, AISC, Cap-ex etc my rough NPV calc excluding any upside from Cu, Au, Pd etc comes in at 1.2bn USD.At current exchange rates this equates to AUD $1.55bn and thus if the Ni price does continue to trend higher as expected an AUD NPV of circa 2bn is very realistic in the not too distant future.

This explains why SW has been so confident in vocalising his expectations that BSX will be at least an AUD 1bn company as we move into production in 2023. Don't forget that drilling of more of the remaining targets will occur during 2022 whilst the downstream processing plant is under construction which will result in a series of resource upgrades and bolster our valuation leading into production.

I hope this reminds everyone of the upside potential on our 44.5c SP given the current MC remains low at 143m. Fidelity bought in at 42c and obviously they saw plenty of value at that level. Post this week's pick up in volume and break of resistance levels, Slick's charts look very compelling indeed!

I know some very knowledgable people are active on this thread so if you see any issues with my valuation estimate please take me to task as I'm sure you will to make sure our expectations don't get out of line with reality!

PS I've put this together whilst watching the cricket(Aust 5 - 247 lead of 341) and nursing a hangover(for this that think posting on HC on a Sunday is only for losers....haha).

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Thanks for the analysis.

Based on this, what’s your SP target? And at what stage in BSX timeline do you expect this price to occur?

BSX Price at posting: 44.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Thanks for the analysis. Based on this, what’s your SP target?...

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Thanks for the analysis. Based on this, what’s your SP target?...

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