Hello,
Yes good question -- I went through a similar exercise during my personal investment due diligence as well.
Based on a conversation with an expert in the field please see summary of differences between the compounds:
- NNZ-2566 is an oral solution vs an injection;
- NNZ-2566 is a modified portion of IGF-1 and not the whole protein, doesn't seem to affect bone stimulation and it can be safely administered to all ages (shotgun versus sniper rifle);
- IGF-1 use is unsafe post puberty... It stimulates bone growth in wrong place (particularly in the face/jaw) and cause some deformities and other issues --> poor functioning bone + bone cancer risk. So there’s a window of time when IGF-1 could be administered as a treatment; and,
- As IGF-1 is less targeted there is a higher probability that long term use will lead to negative side effects --> accelerate bone + organ + cancer growth rates. This lack of growth related side effects has the additional benefit that NNZ-2566 may be safer to increase dosage/better tollerance.
One last comment. Current valuations via Bell Potter etc. are based on 10-20% peak market share but even if IGF-1 was approved because it is contrindicated post puberty the peak market share will likely be closer to 50%. However, as NNZ-2566 is more targeted and doesn't seem to affect growth stimulation it is likely to be selected for administration by the majority of parents of younger patients too ( i know what treatment I would select as a parent ... oral versus injection and more targeted.
In conclusion, regardless of whether IGF-1 is eventually approved NEU is undervalued and as others have said, first to to market and marketing exclusivity periods via orphan drug designation / breakthrough therapy will be king anyway.
Regards,
Eights
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