bta takeover very possible, page-3

Peter Cook said recently that even in a bad year the Flu antiviral market is 1.7 Billion a year.

Some rough numbers on the last year would say it was a 3.5 billion year. I estimated relenza was 30% of the market. 70% was Tamiflu. $70 million in BTA royalties equates roughly to 1 Billion in sales of relenza.All data indicates that this figure will go to a min 50% market share to best case 100% market share.

So back to the bad year. $1.7 billion according to Cook. There is little doubt with this Swine scare, plus H5N1 awareness, that Anti virals are on GOVT buying agendas. Add the disaster of excess flu vaccine and you get an increase antiviral attractiveness, both politically and practically.

The flu market consists of only two currently effective antivirals. Soon to be three. BTA has a interest in two of them.

Back to the numbers re takeover. Cash is king. End of june 2010 BTA estimates they will have $100 million cash and a continuing income stream.

BTA has 50% of the next flu antiviral. So a slice of the 1.7 to 4 billion dollar flu antiviral market per year.

HRV continues to pass with flying colours in its phase 2ii stages. HRV means a possible cure for the common cold. Another Multi Billion market. etc etc.

I know I sound like a broken record.

The point of this post is that a big Pharma with just a share allocation of its own stock and maybe a token amount of cash can takeover BTA for next to nics and gain a potential slice of these multi Billion dollar markets.

In my conversations with BTA they know they are a sitting duck. Very little they can do to defend a takeover.

Any attempt at BTA will happen before the end of June 2010, in my opinion.

I would love to hear your arguments on why they wouldnt be taken over.