The concept makes sense but where are the customers? If they came out and announced a few really big names this may get legs. Or an existing customer making a large increase in licenses? Unless they are getting this and not announcing it...
Read the Nancy Nardin report for 2020 and it looks like buying Clearslide makes sense as they were a competitor. 600+ sales enablement platforms out there apparently so they can't buy them all
Will be interested to see the 4C at the end of Jan. Last qtr was negative $8.86M cash flow after customer cash receipts of $4.5M. With 300,000 licenses out there and $4.5M cash receipts that's about $5 per month per customer.
So what's the realistic number of customers out there? Global sales enablement expected to reach $2.6B by 2024 (according to MarketsandMarkets whoever they are) but currently at USD1.1B (AUD1.5B) BTH seems to be mentioned in the top 20 of sales enablement companies (and buying competitors)....but depending on where you source information, on Capterra (whatever that is), Salesforce has 4.5/5 stars and 15k+ reviews. BTH has zero stars and zero reviews.....
So with $18M customer receipts now from a AUD1.5B market that's only a 1.2% market share (plenty of room to grow or about as good as it gets)???
Say by some miracle they pick up 12% of the 2024 forecast market (growth of 10 x current market share) that gives them USD260M in customer receipts by 2024. Note that increasing their current customer receipts by 10 fold only results in USD130M coming in so it seems they have to increase their customer base 20 fold or increase the price of their product. They are currently burning USD25M per year (set to increase with the purchase of Clearslide and it's ongoing costs). Assume USD100M cash burn by 2024 (total guess and likely way too generous) and that leaves USD160M before tax, USD112M after tax, AUD155M after tax resulting in a market valuation of AUD2.3B at a PE of 15. That's a lot of stars that have to align to get a 5 fold increase on today's market cap.... If it goes absolutely insane with a PE of something like XRO (450 times current EPS and they are only projected to make $61M in 2021 for a $22B market cap) on it's way to this 2024 nirvana future it could see $5 well before 2024 (maybe even something eye watering like $30). One can only dream....
Unless they start crystallizing some of the projections in their own marketing literature, BTH could just become another sales enablement platform in a sea of half baked software.....or they could become the market leader and this thing could be moving towards $5 on pure market hysteria and hype within the next 18-24 months.
Lot's of assumptions here, all IMO, please DYOR and feel free to challenge any of the above...
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