The second satellite image of BTL's test well is out now. Assuming there isn't any material flowback/cleanup impacts remaining (it doesn't look like there is), the inferred BTL initial flow rate looks surprisingly weak for their fully fracced 10,000 ft appraisal well. The pic on the left is the TBN SS2 well at the end of its IP90 flow test 8//5/25 flowing what they said was around 6 TJ/d from just half of a lateral (126m diameter). The pic on the right is from BTL's second sat pic on 8/25/25 from a fully fracced 10,000 ft lateral (101m diameter). Significantly smaller flare diameter (I'm using the SWIR Layer).
TBN (8//5/25) BTL (8/25/25)
Couple of my thoughts: 1) The TBN SS2 IP90 result of about 6 TJ/d from half a lateral length was only marginal if you extrapolate it out to 10,000ft equivalent - hardly a conclusive economic appraisal result for an incredibly high-cost NT gas project (both development and transport). 2) The BTL rate looks significantly lower based on sat images - going off the flare diameters (admittedly not very scientific or accurate) it appears to me that BTL's initial flow rate is <5 TJ/d for a full 10,000ft fracced lateral, and this is probably going to decline noticeably over the next 1 - 3 months. 3) If this BTL flow rate turns out to be close to reality, not sure there is any chance for a commercially viable BTL project given the NT gas market will already be in surplus after TBN and BTL start producing appraisal gas (their collective production target of 70TJ/d is equal to the total NT domestic gas demand by themselves), transport costs to the east coast market will chew up almost half of the east coast gas price, and NT regs and remoteness add significantly to costs when compared to Qld or SA... not to mention an impending domestic gas reservation policy that will artificially depress the east coast gas price for all suppliers and along with it kill new gas development in the Beetaloo Basin.
Obviously reading tea leaves at this stage, so open to other interpretations.....
Celtic
BTL Price at posting:
29.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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