Happy New Year fellow investors and future investors,
It's the start of 2025 and what a year 2024 was!
I wanted to consider a discussion for the year ahead.
Reviewing the Sept 2024 Investor Presentation again - a number of things stand out for me, namely the 2025 1H production of 100koz pa rate.
Achieving that might result in revenue in this capacity:
Scenario 1: Lower Gold Price (A$2,500/oz):
- Revenue = 100,000 oz × A$2,500/oz = A$250 million.
Scenario 2: Higher Gold Price (A$3,000/oz):
Could we be making money? Some 'back-of-the envelope' analysis to promote discussion (please DYOR):
- Revenue = 100,000 oz × A$3,000/oz = A$300 million.
Revenue A$187.5 million (assuming 75,000 ounces of production at an average price of A$2,500/oz)Net Profit Estimate:
AISC:(All-in Sustaining Cost)
- Estimated at A$1,800–A$2,000/oz, based on scoping studies.
- Total production cost for 75,000 ounces:
- At AISC of A$1,800/oz: A$135 million.
- At AISC of A$2,000/oz: A$150 million.
Gross Profit (Revenue - AISC):
Additional Cost:
- At AISC A$1,800/oz: A$52.5 million.
- At AISC A$2,000/oz: A$37.5 million.
- Exploration & Development Costs: Brightstar plans aggressive drilling programs and feasibility studies. Estimate: A$10–15 million.
- Corporate Overheads: Administration, salaries, and other expenses. Estimate: A$5–10 million.
- Financing Costs: Potential interest on debt or other financial obligations. Estimate: A$2–5 million.
At AISC A$1,800/oz:
- Gross Profit: A$52.5 million.
- Net Profit: A$22.5–37.5 million.
At AISC A$2,000/oz:
- Gross Profit: A$37.5 million.
- Net Profit: A$7.5–22.5 million.
Recent $30M capital raise.
I am merely an investor and mainly in the developmental mining sector. I encourage other investors and potential investors to discuss:Let's all continue to add our ideas and discuss,
- What we think / hope / hope-not the company may focus on immediately,
- This (above) revenue analysis puts the existing market capitalisation value into perspective..
- What may happen to the shareprice over the next 6-12 months
- SP consolidation - ideas..
(Please DYOR, the above numbers are just for a discussion)
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