so we could use rough figures to show 30% no mortgage, 30% buyers, 40% renters....depending on the suburbs...
lets say the outright owners prefer to stay put.....
leaves us with some of the purchases who may decide to bail, that leaves us with the renters.....
are the renters going to be able to afford to buy....
some owners may prefer to buy some bargains....competing against the renters...
anyway you look at it...only the purchasers 30% are at risk...of which 25% of 30% are fhb's.....say 1/4 of fhb are at risk.... so about 2% of all housing may be at risk..... 10 million houses....austwide...@ 2% is 200,000 possibly in a worst case scenario.....divided by 5 biggest cities...is 40,000 houses spread across a couple of hundred suburbs around melb....
of course those selling may have to rent, or if not have a family ...go home to mum and dad.... PI still looks good to me.... on the balance of probabilities
