Hi Seano180 ... I don’t know anyone or anything round here...

Hi Seano180 ... I don’t know anyone or anything round here although a non-Hot Copper friend has long been woeful on their BUB shares...
....Oh, and I know I decided to impulse dip a toe in today, purely on the basis of the significant volume (24,433,859 shares by day’s end).
So I thought to take a look backwards rather than forwards..
- which is relevant to your timeline in an historic sense?

Most particularly I wondered who the big owners are in case there is a change in someone’s holding following today’s volume.

Currently I have my fingers crossed on C2 Capital Partners having decided on an EOFY swoop on BUB shares priced at their lowest since August 2, 2017.

(I put a story as to what was going on around then in the second spoiler*).​

C2 CAPITAL PARTNERS ; Around three years ago, on April 1, 2019, Hong Kong-based investment firm, C2 Capital Partners - supposedly linked to Jack Ma, took a 15% interest according to the AFR .
https://www.afr. com/companies/retail/alibaba-linked-fund-to-buy-stake-in-bubs-to-fund-dairy-deal-20190401-p519m6 (see story in spoiler).

Spoiler : April 2019 - Alibaba linked fund buys into Bubs

Alibaba-linked fund to buy stake in Bubs to fund dairy deal
Michael SmithChina correspondent
Apr 1, 2019 – 3.38pm

Shanghai | A private equity fund linked to Jack Ma’s Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba Group will own more than 15 per cent of fast-growing infant formula group Bubs Australia as part of a deal to acquire a Melbourne dairy manufacturer.

Bubs, which sells goat milk products to China’s middle class, has agreed to buy infant formula producer Australia Deloraine Dairy. It has agreed to a private share placement to new Hong Kong-based investment firm C2 Capital Partners, which will become a major shareholder in the company.

Alibaba is believed to be an anchor investor in C2 Capital, along with other institutions and sovereign wealth funds looking to capitalise on China’s middle class consumer boom. C2 Capital was established last year and the Bubs deal is its first investment.

The backing of a fund, which counts Alibaba as a key investor, is a win for Bubs as many of its rival brands would also like the Chinese ecommerce giant to invest in their businesses. Other Australian dairy companies sell their products in China via Alibaba's Tmall platform.

Bubs has agreed to pay $25 million in cash and $10 million in shares for Australia Deloraine Dairy, plus further payments of $15 million over three years if certain performance targets are met.

Bubs and C2 Capital have also agreed to raise $31.4 million through a private share placement at 65¢ a share. C2 would also acquire additional shares in Bubs from existing shareholders, the NuLac Foods Vendors, giving it a 15 per cent stake in Bubs.



Key foothold

C2 managing partner Steve Lin, who will join the Bubs board, was not available for interviews on Monday. The company did not appear to have a website. The fund was formed last year to invest in companies capitalising on the boom in spending by China's middle class.

Alibaba, which was founded by Jack Ma and valued itself at $US130 billion in a recent regulatory filing, is believed to be an anchor investor in C2 Capital. Photo: Reuters
“This is a key foothold in Bubs’ vertical integration strategy to maximise control of our supply chain and represents an important step in our vision to expand our China business,” Bubs Australia chief executive Kristy Carr said.

The deal is the latest in a string of investments Bubs is making to meet demand in China for Australian dairy products. Bubs’ first-half pre-tax loss doubled to $8.3 million in the first-half of the current year.

Australia Deloraine Dairy is one of only 15 licensed facilities in Australia authorised by Chinese regulators to produce infant formula products that can be imported into China. Tough new regulatory requirements in China are making it more challenging for foreign dairy imports into the country, particularly for those who have not been awarded one of the limited number of licences available.

Bubs said the deal would allow it to reduce production costs and put it in a better position to achieve brand registration with China’s regulators.

Rival The a2 Milk Company gained its Chinese certification in 2017, while Bellamy’s Australia is still waiting for a new licence to sell Chinese-labelled products in stores in China.

Bubs already has a deal with Alibaba’s TMall Global that means the Bubs range of formula, organic baby food, cereals and snacks will be sold on the platform.

Bubs shares closed 1.2 per cent lower at 79.50¢ after coming out of a trading halt on Monday.

Bubs was founded in 2006 and listed on the ASX in January 2017. It recently acquired NuLac Foods which is Australia’s biggest producer of goat milk products.

That interest at last count was down to 13.32% or 76,288,510 according to Market Index [ref].

Anyhow maybe that ~$9.66 million of volume excitement today was set off by the notion of hordes of new Chinese babies in nine months, but I am hoping it is more immediate and ‘substantial’

... And I guess tomorrow will tell

Fingers crossed

cheers


* Early August 2017 prices were last around 40c.
FWIW

Spoiler : An August 2017 AFR retrospective

https://www.afr. com/companies/healthcare-and-fitness/bubs-australia-rockets-on-infant-formula-demand-20170806-gxq72h
Bubs Australia rockets on infant formula demand
Simon EvansSenior Reporter
Updated Aug 6, 2017 – 3.56pm, first published at 1.00pm

Infant formula and organic baby food company Bubs Australia wants to strengthen its Australian domestic presence even though its share price has rocketed 70 per cent in the past week largely on demand for "white gold" from Chinese customers.

Bubs shares climbed from 30¢ on July 27 to close at 51¢ on Friday as investors focus on some of the smaller ASX companies supplying infant formula to China. It is a sector which has experienced sharp volatility and caused heartburn for one of the bigger player's, Bellamy's Australia.

Bubs chief executive Nicholas Simms said on Sunday that an agreement signed in June with major e-commerce platform company kaola.com in China had been very important from a strategic viewpoint because the site had the highest market share among China's cross-border retail import e-commerce businesses.


Bubs Australia has experienced a big share price jump in the past week. Supplied
"It has significant reach in the Chinese marketplace," Mr Simms told The Australian Financial Review. The customer base, made up largely of 18 to 35-year-old "upwardly mobile" people, augured well for future growth and repeat business across a range of products for Bubs.
"It's probably not just a great customer today, but into the future," he said.

Bubs also has a large shareholder, Zhang "Nancy" Zetian, who is the celebrity wife of Chinese billionaire Richard Liu, who founded one of China's most popular e-commerce sites, JD.com.
Highly influential

Zhang Zetian is highly influential on social media in China, and was dubbed "milk tea sister" when a photograph of her sipping a beverage when she was still a high school student was an internet sensation.
Mr Simms said Bubs still generates more than 85 per cent of its sales in Australia, where its major retail customers include Coles, Chemist Warehouse and Costco.

The Bubs surge mirrors that of another ASX-listed infant formula company, Wattle Health, which jumped a further 15 per cent on Friday to close at 91¢. This followed an even bigger rise by Wattle the previous day, or 37 per cent. Wattle raised $12 million in fresh capital last week through an institutional placement priced at 56¢ and has delivered vast paper profits to investors who took up shares in the original float of the company at 20¢ per share in mid-March.

Bubs undertook a backdoor listing in January through the shell of Hillcrest Litigation Services, raising $5.2 million at an issue price of 10¢ per share. It was in the spotlight very early when its then chairman Alan van Noort stepped down as chairman of Bubs just over a week after it listed on the ASX, startling investors.

But it has righted itself in the eyes of most investors, and in the past week in particular, has taken off on the ASX.
Trusted brand

Mr Simms, who was elevated to chief executive officer of Bubs in June from his previous role as commercial director for infant milk formula with the company, previously worked with international consumer goods firms such as Mars Inc, Heinz and Cussons.

He said Bubs was acutely aware of the important of having a strong and trusted brand in Australia, because that gave it a springboard into China.

"We know that obviously people see Australia as a clean and green destination," he said.
"The knock-on effect that comes to our brand is gratefully received."
That was why building more presence as a brand in the Australian retail market was one of the key planks in the growth strategy.

Mr Simms said it was difficult to assess how much of the local buying of Bubs also found its way on to Chinese e-commerce sites through daigou traders. But Bubs hadn't deliberately set out to pursue the daigou traders, which have been an important part of the success of vitamins brands such as Blackmores.