Buckle up for $1, page-249

Just to be clear, they (AT1) aren't going to be the only player in the covid-19 POCT market. This market is going to be highly saturated and extremely competitive (if its not already). There are going to be numerous US, Chinese, Korean and European Diagnostic companies angling for a slice of the global pie including industry behemoths like Roche who already have a big heard start. Cepheid, owned by Danaher Corporation, will also a massive player. Very little to no recognition of these competitive forces in their recent presentation.

Shareholder value creation therefore dependent on AT1 finding sales and leaving some of the said numerous competitors in their dust (not controlling sales).

This market opportunity may exist for months or years depending timing and availability of a vaccine and whether any vaccine will help manage the disease or cure it. By Sept 2021, there may not be a need for POC testing for covid19.

Admittedly and positively they do have exposure to other markets like HIV. I know for a fact that University of NSW use the Atomo HIV Self Test in their studies and reckon its pretty good.

So whilst AT1 is off to a good start post IPO and in a decent position, future and significant share price appreciation would require conversion of this decent position into meaningful sales through its emerging distribution channels.

Speculative buy or speculative hold, far from a long term slam dunk.