HUM

2.26%

86.5¢ humm group limited

Buckle up for $2, page-1655

First 1655 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
SilverTrade

5,928 Posts.

609

27/02/21

14:45

Post #: 51387051
Share

Originally posted by StefanF: ↑

Its an interesting thought and to be honest in 2020 I'm not sure because in many ways I feel like the ship has sailed. If we go back 3 or 4 years ago then things would have been very different.

HUM used to be a consumer financing company which had quantitative credit risk models in place. These are difficult and time consuming to set up when you take into consideration resourcing, building the models, taking time to valuate the model and finally going through independent risk model validation process. This gave HUM a strategic advantage a few years ago.

However there were two issues. One, they didn't realise quick enough that the real money is made in the pay-in-4 or similar type products rather than the pay-over-2-years. There is a number of reasons for that including lower credit risk, greater capital efficiency (book turns over multiple times a year) and most importantly creating deep relationships with consumers and merchants.

The second one, and this is something I touched on a year or two ago, is that HUM was paying a dividend instead of reinvesting the capital. This was fine a few years ago when HUM was just in consumer finance, which isn't really high growth so it made sense to pay out the capital.

Taking all of this into consideration, in a perfect world for HUM investors a few years ago HUM would have announced their transition to pay-in-4 (or similar) of the back of APT success. The strategy would have included a capital raise, and stopping dividend payments. Of course you'd say that's crazy, the share price would have tanked but it depends on what strategic initiatives they would have provided to the market. If they said we are taking advantage of our credit risk models to rotate into BNPL and expand overseas then the market would have been fine by it. You'd now have a company closer to Z1P's market cap or maybe higher.

Of course this is all highly theoretical. One big issue in all of this is that HUM was already an established company with certain shareholder expectation so everything I mentioned isn't as simple as it sounds. APT and Z1P were new companies with a clear focused strategy (and still are). HUM rotating into BNPL feels a little like that scene in Titanic where the captain is trying to avoid the ice berg but the ship just rotates too slow.

Expand

whats u r take on HUM partnership with DOU

DOU is relying on other banks licence
DOU is Capital light
DOU -Repeat merchants and users due to various jars
DOU- Book turnover multiple times, various jars, merchant option
DOU 300% cust growth number
DOU recent acquisition wives them access to more customers and increases the cust no by almost 200%

Or is IOU or something else a better bet than both combined

HUM Price at posting: $1.02 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

COD

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

KAL

KalGold rolls out detailed aeromagnetic survey across Pinjin project

ACW

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

DEG

HotCopper users muse on De Grey's denial of Agnico Eagle takeover bid – but who are Agnico?

Week 39 Wrap: What HotCopper’s watching; China’s new stimmy moves boost metals; Oz CPI drop

The winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone

NAM

ACCC seeks Olam divestments before it can buy Namoi Cotton

ESR

Estrella first foreign entity to win tenements in Timor-Leste under new laws ahead of 2025 tenders

STK

5.6g/t gold intercept at Serbia's Rogozna supports Strickland's hopes for high-grade core

The market's shrugged at China's stimulus measures all year. Why is this one different?

There are more pages in this discussion • 1 more message in this thread...

First 1655 Last

Add HUM (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 86.5¢		Change -0.020(2.26%)		Mkt cap ! $425.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
87.5¢	88.5¢	83.5¢	$3.770M	4.413M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	30954	84.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
86.5¢	77819	4

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	30954	0.840
1	30954	0.835
2	36979	0.830
2	100954	0.825
1	3000	0.820

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.865	77819	4
0.870	84954	3
0.875	32054	3
0.880	96978	3
0.885	30954	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 27/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

HUM (ASX) Chart

Buckle up for $2, page-1655

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

KalGold rolls out detailed aeromagnetic survey across Pinjin project

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

HotCopper users muse on De Grey's denial of Agnico Eagle takeover bid – but who are Agnico?

Week 39 Wrap: What HotCopper’s watching; China’s new stimmy moves boost metals; Oz CPI drop

The winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone

ACCC seeks Olam divestments before it can buy Namoi Cotton

Estrella first foreign entity to win tenements in Timor-Leste under new laws ahead of 2025 tenders

5.6g/t gold intercept at Serbia's Rogozna supports Strickland's hopes for high-grade core

The market's shrugged at China's stimulus measures all year. Why is this one different?

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Buckle up for $2, page-1655

Top Stories

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

KalGold rolls out detailed aeromagnetic survey across Pinjin project

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

HotCopper users muse on De Grey's denial of Agnico Eagle takeover bid – but who are Agnico?

Week 39 Wrap: What HotCopper’s watching; China’s new stimmy moves boost metals; Oz CPI drop

The winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone

ACCC seeks Olam divestments before it can buy Namoi Cotton

Estrella first foreign entity to win tenements in Timor-Leste under new laws ahead of 2025 tenders

5.6g/t gold intercept at Serbia's Rogozna supports Strickland's hopes for high-grade core

The market's shrugged at China's stimulus measures all year. Why is this one different?

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News