The standout thing to me is the bullish divergence showing through with MACD MAVs rising whilst price falls.
Zooming in to 4 hourly:
Bullish divergence is very strong here, depicted by the blue lines.
Points of interest:
The two circled gaps on price present good targets.
Purple rectangle on MACD histogram shows interesting three drive structure, something is pending.
If I was trading this I would place a buy at 91, consider selling part at 93, then wait to see if it retests 20MA, and how price reacts when it does.
If positive, I would then be looking to buy at below 93, watching the 20MA.
Profits at 97, hold smaller parcel, wait for retrace and then upside retest of 97 before additional buy for push to 110.
That is of course, if upside momentum occurs, and is based on strategies tested at the 5 min level in more liquid and volatile markets... do techniques on these faster markets work on the markets' slower cousins (equities)?
.... meh.... don't know... Am interested in confirming or negating evidence.
If price breaks 85 though, I expect a test of 70 (ish).
I would consider putting a tiny probe buy there, ready to kiss my money goodbye if necessary.
Before I made a decision to the upside, I must confess I'd want to know a bit more of the fundamentals of Air New Zealand as a company. (Now I'm starting to understand fundamentals... sigh)...
The New Zealand bit worries me as their economy is under stress.
How are Air New Zealnd's books? Do they lease or own planes, is mainteneance sorted and not due for major capital intesive overhauls or replacement?
How's their debt level? Anything due in the near term? Do they have cash or eqivalent liquid assets...b;ah blah blah.
Sorry SabreToothed... I know sweet FA about the company, and at these prices, whether the business is sound and truly profitable, or at least paying for itself with contingencies covered is, in my not so humble opinion, paramount to upside in our current atmosphere.
Must say though, looking at the chart on the weekly is enough to give me heart attack... If this thing bounces... It could be quick.
;)
AIZ Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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