Hi Sharespike,
No, not gripped by a sense of panic, far from it, just trying to learn and better understand what's happening. I read a comment yesterday re HC Sentiment that made sense to me - BUY means I would buy today based on FA/TA if I had funds available. I have funds available, significant in fact as I just sold my house. Would I buy today? No, not yet as I think this has further to go. Will I buy more in the future? Yes. Am I still bullish BUD medium/long term? Yes.
But I will wait until the bottom is in place - more accurately where I THINK the bottom is in place - before committing further funds. I think details on Telstra/Global Opportunity should do the trick.
I have just spent a couple of hours this morning reviewing announcements.
Saskatel: "Revenue will commence Q3 FY18"
IM Canada: "Sales to commence Q3 FY18"
IM USA: "Sales to commence late Q2 FY18" i.e Q3 FY18
Telstra: "Sales to commence coming quarter, ie Q3 FY18
From this it seems clear that we won't start to see meaningful OHM revenue until end of this quarter, growing into Q4 FY18. Also, data sales don't start to kick in until this quarter.
So, I think the MC got a little stretched at the end of the bull run last year, SP topping out at 41.5 cents, MC circa 400 million. The small lift following the $5 million raise from exercise of options failed to make an impression, stalling at 39.5.
If you look at the following chart you can see the effect various announcements had on the SP. Nothing really shifted until IM Canada which was quickly followed by the CR then Telstra. In fact, the SP fell after most announcements. Tellingly, for me at least, the SP took a significant hit on high volume just before and following IM USA, and has yet to find support. Price broke long-term support yesterday, fell through the 100 MA, which was also 68.2% Fibonacci - not shown.
Thus, I think there is selling pressure from the CR. Even at 25 cents, participants are still up 25%. If you were in for a million or two, that's still tidy profit to be taken off the table.
Furthermore, I would not be at all surprised if this is being deliberately sold down for the sole purpose of loading up again at lower prices before the multiple revenue streams from Parse Data, Buddy Platform and Buddy Ohm really begin to kick in, all of which is forecast for this FY/CY leading to break-even/profitability in 2019.
Basically, the market wants to see the money, and that is what we are seeing in the price action.
I hope this better explains my thoughts @notlistening. I am bullish BUD medium/long term. Always have been. That doesn't mean I don't - and shouldn't - try to analyse both FA and TA to better understand my investment, and the timing of when to commit further funds, which I shall do in due course. BUD remains the most significant part of my portfolio, which since 41.5 has taken a decent hit.
Of course, this could all turn on a dime and I will look like a complete idiot. Not to worry, even that outcome would be just part of my ongoing market education.
Here's the chart. Apologies for it being so cramped:
View attachment 906167
Also, GR, here's Twiggs Money Flow showing clear bearish divergence/distribution in sync with falling SP since the double top @ 41.5:
The good news is, we are in oversold territory on both RSI and Stoch.
View attachment 906173
I hope this all better explains my position. No panic, no overall long term change in sentiment, simply watching, waiting and hopefully learning. Thanks for taking the time to wade through all this. Hopefully some may find it worth the effort!
