@Holdtight
at ~11c i said a doubling of q revenues - ie 477k goes to $954k could move stock up 50% - ie 16-17c
not sure how you think what i just outlined contradicts that . doubling would be seen as a pass mark i think
these arent super precise measures - its not clear to me exactly how mkt would treat 850k revenue to 1m revenue for eg
i didnt say it would be a gamechanger qtrly - i believe you are misinterpreting me
im saying the market is likely wrestling with whether BUD is
- high margin fast growth
- high margin slow growth
- high margin no growth
so if its a 'gamechanger' then bang - negative sentiment reverses - BUD stock goes back to being on high margin high growth outlook
if.
likewise the other handwave scenarios represent what i think are reasonable alterative scenarios
i dont know what delivery will be.
its not a petri dish experiment - prior guidance impacts how markets interpret later delivery
if you tell market you expect up to $69.3m in annualised 3 yr total revenue - it will generally expect you to deliver about $7-12m yr 1 - $15-25m yr 2 - $30+m in yr 3
so if it hits $4m annualised then i think its going to be given benefit that its on track for hitting guidance
selling is a verb - it is an activity. sales receipts are an outcome from the activity.
theyve been selling Ohm since last May but really June's Digicel pre-launch
the market will be conscious that the guidance had a huge amount of potential for rolling lag bleed - because its comprised of a whole series of estimates all of which came with a caveat 'once sales' commence
so for eg the sasktel component - not having seen a sale - has not to this point commenced as part of the $69.3m.
i dont see myself jumping between sales and revenue. i interpret all revenue expectations for Ohm through a base system estimate month equivalent - though i recognise actua, installs will usually be lower because not all clients will use the lowest cost - and equally some early adopters are on $1000/system month systems
the revenue is the key not the actual installs for the most part
but ive no doubt the funds will be cross checking their install estimates vs what they expected
all in all im not clear any of what you said applies.
but i accept and agree that there;s a haze of shifting numbers and assumptions here - and anyone making hard and fast estimates and assumptions may be looking at things differently from other market participants who have interpreted the market differently
technically the stock is due a bounce. thematically and sector wise also. so i think upside outcomes are more in favour here
but there;ll be a minimum level of qtrly income below which i think buy side will pivot in its view
ive roughed out where i think those break point could be. but i dont claim to be all knowing as to how everyone else thinks
ive just painted what i think are approximates for what those filters will be.
dont get pedantic - pass mark is strong. would be an excellent result. how excellent depends on the qtrly im not about to grade high discintions and distinctions.
im saying its roughly trinomial risk/reward scenario imo. pass/tp/fail is just an easy way to frame that
because of the sliding right slide risks in the 3yr guidance amd whats led up to it - im not convincned market will jjst allow stock to hover in mid of nowhere waiting for more quarterlies to roll through
thats generally not how the stock market functions since the advent of shorting and algo trading
