You really need to include the performance shares in any market cap calculation in my opinion. Assuming they don't get issues means a smaller market cap and you own less of the company, however the milestones required to achieve the performance targets must be hit for the company to succeed and be successful + profitable.
If those shares are never issued, it means the company will have floundered and the current shares on offer will quite possibly be worth be less than what they are now.
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