BUD 0.00% 0.6¢ buddy technologies ltd

BUD: Where are we? May 2018, page-153

  1. 9,779 Posts.
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    @techfacts

    that comment just shows inexperience

    its actually the common procedure for emerging stocks not to specify early order numbers. the last listed i was an exec in i told them to do the exact same thing BUD has done

    early stage business is largely unpredictable - but the market is hardwired for 99% complete predictability because all its behaviours are set for large cap stocks that have a very high degree of certainty and control over near tearm outcomes

    but the market tends to act on all stocks as if they have the level of resources, control and certainty that large caps have taught them to expect

    once you give out numbers - whatever they are - it sets an almost unmeetable expectation quarter after quarter - piling up pressure to scrounge out st wins instead of working toward a 3-5 year view

    eg

    if your ANZ you;re having 50,000 new business conversations a day - its simple math to work out hat % will convert at what vg loan value and rate

    when you're BUD there may only be one new business conversation happening a day. The variance can be anything from no sale to 300 systems - depending on the target.

    so what happens if one quarter you land a decent '30 system client' then the next quarter things go back to normal. then the quarter after thhat you get a 100 system order,

    the stock will go absurdly high then get smashed ony to go ridiculously high

    thats why the company put out the 3 year rolling 'portfolio' revenue target - but thats got a very wide range that alllows for a fair degree of the inevitable up down and sdeways that will occur as they work with each distrbutor to navigate their specific markets


    thats the true and legitimate reason why even the most highly reputable small caps wont report early stage order numbers.

    if they could they would hide the cashflow for the same reason - but legally that has to be disclosed
 
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