Hey BUD, It's difficult to know exactly what to expect. In a...

Hey BUD,

It's difficult to know exactly what to expect.

In a recent post, I shared what I anticipate to be BUD's approximate distribution timeline. See below:



I agree that $500k is a given from Cloud revenue. However, it's difficult to justify having significant expectations for Ohm revenue given distribution has only tentatively begun this quarter (globally) and will not really be in full swing until the next quarter (see above table).

Nonetheless, I am expecting at least $300k from Ohm (or $800k total) as the bottom line for the coming quarterly. That would equate to worst case 100 Ohms best case 300 Ohms (approx).

It is important to note that revenue in this coming quarterly is only going to really represent Digicel distributing at full capacity (meaning expectations should be tempered accordingly) (see above table).

The quarterly will be significant for the information (1) we get regarding the scale rate since the previous quarter (i.e Digicel at partial vs full capacity) and (2) for an update on where the team is currently distributing. It will also be very telling if management reiterates previous forecasts of cash flow positive in FY19.

I expect the most important quarterlies are going to be those that immediately follow in October 2018 and January 2019 (to continue the established significant % revenue growth trend).

Having said all of this, I think there is plenty of room to be surprised this coming quarterly. In the past, Dave has used the word 'material' to represent $ amounts north of A$1m, so I definitely think there is the potential for the quarterly to come out at $1m-$1.5m total!

Even if it is my base figure of $800k, this will still represent some 90% total growth on the previous quarter. I am anticipating the following October quarterly to be some $1.5-$3m (based on the figure in the July quarterly).

I continue to accumulate as much as I can (...we will soon find out whether I am smarter than the market )

GLTAH!